Posted on
June 17, 2011 by
Tiffany C. Wright
Join the IPO Party (Eric Markowitz, Inc.com) is a great article about a resurgence in the tech IPO market that feeds into previous blogs about how IPOs were not dead, how they are increasing. Here’s an excerpt from the article:
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Is the IPO pipeline bursting? With favorable market conditions and investor appetite, companies are lining up to go public—168 of them, to be precise. That’s the largest backlog since 2000, and The New York Times‘s Dealbook questions today whether all the fervor is creating a dangerous crush—and that valuations could become unhinged from reality. While there’s little indication of the market souring, it’s clear that investor interest is driving up initial valuations—30 percent of offerings have exceeded price expectations this year, according to Renaissance Capital—and that some companies’ stocks quickly deflate from their first-day gains.
In the first three months of this 2011, “venture-capital investment in consumer tech companies nearly tripled to $874 million from $310 million a year earlier.” This is according to a Wall Street Journal article.
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I personally don’t think the tech IPO market or venture capital market is overheating. It is typical for tech companies with a sizable following to have a big runup on the day they are listed from all those individuals and companies who could not get in at the pre-IPO price. The fact that only 30% to have deflated is a good sign. In the heydays of the runups, the numbers were closer to 70%. I won’t discuss how the market performed at its peak compared to the subsequent downturn several months later. (If you followed the market, you know it was ugly.)
Here’s another excerpt from the same Join the IPO article: “The shift away from business-oriented technology start-ups has been gathering steam over the past few years,” The Journal notes. “Venture investment into such companies was $11.9 billion in 2010, down 35 percent from $18.4 billion in 2006.”
Although, venture capital investment in B2B is down from 2006 to 2010, read another way, the B2B venture capital market is still doing okay, at $11.9 billion in 2010.
How can the New York Times Dealbook say the tech IPO market for start-ups is overheating when one segment (B2B) has had a 35% drop off? And that segment (B2B) is STILL multiples higher than the other segment (B2C), even after the drop in B2B startup investment and the nearly tripling in B2C startup investment.
I think the IPO market is just heating up. There has been a lot of pent up demand from the last several years when media darling tech companies’ best bet of cashing out high was to be purchased by an eBay or Yahoo or other very large media or related entity. (Think MySpace’s purchase by News Corp. for $580 million in 2005 for one.) And a strong tech IPO market will translate into a strong venture capital market. Why? The quicker venture capitalists can cash out and the higher their multiples at cash out, the greater their overall portfolio performance and the more companies they look to to fill the gap left by the exiting companies. In addition, as more companies go public, the risk profile of investing in start-ups decrease, making VCs less wary of investing in earlier stage companies.
It’s the job of the financial news to continually extol doom and gloom. Who would read if it was all happiness? But pay attention to the facts that are given, not the slant that the journalist injects. I have a BS in Industrial & Systems Engineering and had to take a lot of statistics classes to get that degree. It’s amazing how you can manipulate stats and data to make a point. So read between the lines and draw your own conclusions.
One last point. You will note that the IPO market is strong for B2C startup tech companies and that the investment level for venture capitalists in B2C start-ups is increasing. The investment level in B2B startups will continue to drop until the IPO market for B2B companies increases. That’s what you call in statistics a direct correlation.
Any thoughts? Please share.
Technorati Tags: B2B startup, B2B venture capital, B2C startup, tech IPO market